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PROJECT EULER · #0744

What? Where? When?

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"What? Where? When?" is a TV game show in which a team of experts attempt to answer questions. The following is a simplified version of the game.

It begins with 2n+1 envelopes. 2n of them contain a question and one contains a RED card.

In each round one of the remaining envelopes is randomly chosen. If the envelope contains the RED card the game ends. If the envelope contains a question the expert gives their answer. If their answer is correct they earn one point, otherwise the viewers earn one point. The game ends normally when either the expert obtains n points or the viewers obtain n points.

Assuming that the expert provides the correct answer with a fixed probability p, let f(n,p) be the probability that the game ends normally (i.e. RED card never turns up).

You are given (rounded to 10 decimal places) that
f(6,12)=0.2851562500,
f(10,37)=0.2330040743,
f(104,0.3)=0.2857499982.

Find f(1011,0.4999). Give your answer rounded to 10 places behind the decimal point.

Write-up coming later

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